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Published: 4 May 2011

Climate change science: a new synthesis for Australia

Mary-Lou Considine

How does today’s climate change differ from similar events in the past? What does the best science tell us about where we are heading? And how does research suggest we should respond to the challenges? CSIRO summarises the latest peer-reviewed research in a new online book – Climate Change: Science and Solutions for Australia.

Storm damage on Queensland’s Gold Coast: over coming decades the risk of coastal inundation is expected to increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms driven by changes in climate.
Credit: Bruce Miller, CSIRO

Climate change has been called the greatest environmental challenge of our time. It also has proved one of the greatest communication challenges.

The breadth and depth of climate change science is reflected in the contributions of more than 2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors, and 450 lead authors from many disciplines, which contributed to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment reports. 1

Australians now have access to a plain English summary of the science in the form of a free online book published by CSIRO. The 168-page book, Climate Change: Science and Solutions for Australia, draws on peer-reviewed literature involving thousands of researchers.

CSIRO Chief Executive, Dr Megan Clark, says the book provides ‘a bridge from the peer-reviewed scientific literature to a broader audience of society while providing the depth of science that this complex issue demands and deserves’.

Leading figures involved in the public climate change debate agree on the need for a book that takes ordinary Australians through the complexity of the science.

‘With so much misinformation on climate change flying around in the media and the public these days, a summary of the latest peer-reviewed science by a group of Australia’s leading scientists is a welcome addition to the discourse,’ comments Professor Will Steffen of the ANU, who was recently appointed to the nation’s new Climate Change Commission.

‘The book reiterates the importance of world-class research institutions like CSIRO in providing the Australian public and politicians with reliable information on climate change from researchers with impeccable credentials.’

Anna Skarbek, is Executive Director of ClimateWorks, a non-profit group supported by Monash University and The Myer Foundation that researches ‘low-carbon prosperity’ solutions. She is pleased to see a summary of the science made publicly available online.

‘It is critical that we continue to be guided by peer-reviewed science, and I welcome this effort to help make it accessible,’ she says.

Credit: Climate Change is available at

Dr Bruce Mapstone, Chief of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research wrote the book’s introduction. He says Climate Change provides details and discussions that supplement earlier scientific summaries provided by CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Australian Academy of Science. 2 , 3 , 4

‘The book explains what this extra detail about the science is telling us, and what are some of the main uncertainties in the science,’ says Dr Mapstone.

‘It reflects the current state of knowledge up to, and including, last year, so key work published since the 2007 IPCC assessment report will be captured in each of the chapters.’

Climate Change points out that despite some areas of uncertainty in the science, climate scientists agree overwhelmingly that:

  1. the climate has been changing over the past century or so at a rate faster than recorded for a very long time in geological history

  2. a clear link exists between atmospheric

  3. greenhouse gases and global temperature, consistent with the laws of physics and chemistry

  4. increasing levels of greenhouse gases – mainly CO2 – in the atmosphere are primary causes of global warming and acidification of the global ocean, and

  5. emissions from human activities are primarily responsible for most of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The book highlights important distinctions between climate and weather, and climate variability and climate change, which are often overlooked in the public debate.

Climate variability refers to year-to-year variations or ‘noise’ in average conditions, which mean that some summers, for example, are hotter or wetter than the long-term average. Climate change refers to long-term trends in climate over years or decades, on which year-to-year climate variability is superimposed.

Dr Mapstone says he hopes Climate Change will help readers understand why scientists attribute recent changes in climate mainly to rapid rises in greenhouse gases driven by human activity.

‘No one yet has come up with a credible, alternative explanation for why these recent rapid changes in climate are occurring,’ he says. ‘We can reproduce in climate models recent climate dynamics very well only if we include anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.

‘The sums of climate physics and chemistry just don’t add up to what we have seen happening if the human contributions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are not included.’

Other scientific insights from the latest science summarised in the book include:

  1. some degree of climate change is ‘locked in’ as a result of past greenhouse gas emissions,, so we will need to adapt on a far more extensive scale than is currently occurring

  2. energy saving technologies, demand reduction and distributed power generation will help to lower national carbon emissions

  3. agriculture and forestry hold great potential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through afforestation, soil-carbon management, and better management of livestock and cropping emissions, and

  4. action within the next decade to lower greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the probability and severity of climate change impacts in future decades.

‘Adaptation on a scale far more extensive than is currently occurring will be essential in all walks of life if we are to limit the social, economic and environmental impacts,’ say Climate Change editors Drs Helen Cleugh, Mark Stafford Smith, Michael Battaglia and Paul Graham.

‘Australia’s greatest need is for low-emissions technologies that are competitively priced, resilient and flexible enough to cope with a range of possible future energy challenges and demands.’

Dr Peta Ashworth, another of the book’s 20 authors, says it’s not just industry and government that will be leading mitigation and adaptation efforts. ‘The Australian public will have a powerful influence over the pace and extent of national climate change mitigation strategies.

‘There is considerable scope for individuals to reduce their own carbon footprint and there is growing public support for transition to a green economy,’ she states.

‘Face to face communication and knowledge sharing to overcome the gaps in understanding are critical.’

As well as the free online version, CSIRO will be distributing copies of Climate Change to key decision makers around the country.


More information

Climate Change: Science and Solutions for Australia can be downloaded at: www.csiro.au/Climate-Change-Book



1 The 2007 synthesis report is the most recent in the series; the 5th report, due in 2014, is likely to be as lengthy and complex as its predecessors due to the scope of climate change science and impacts.
2 The science of tackling climate change (2009) CSIRO, www.csiro.au/resources/Tackling-climate-change.html
3 State of the climate: snapshots, CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology occasional series, www.csiro.au/resources/State-of-the-Climate.html
4 Science – facts and fiction, Australian Deptartment of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency, www.climatechange.gov.au/en/climate-change/myths/science.aspx





Published: 4 May 2011

Towards baseload solar thermal power

James Porteous

Spain’s latest large-scale commercial concentrating solar thermal plants have advanced the generation of solar energy around the clock by using thermal storage. Meanwhile, research continues on the role that concentrating solar thermal plants can play as baseload power support technology under different scenarios.

The new solar tower at CSIRO’s National Solar Energy Centre, Newcastle.
The new solar tower at CSIRO’s National Solar Energy Centre, Newcastle.
Credit: CSIRO

Traditionally, solar energy generation has only occurred when the sun shines, so it is often said that solar plants can’t ‘do baseload’ – that is, they can’t reliably produce 24-h electricity required to power society. But there is growing global interest and investment in new concentrating solar thermal (known as CST but sometimes called CSP for Concentrating Solar Power) power plants that can store energy and generate mains power, even when the sun is not shining.

CST technology

Broadly speaking, the various industrial CST energy generators in operation are made up of different arrangements of mirrors and heat ‘receivers’: troughs, power towers, linear Fresnel and dishes (the different designs are described below). All commercial large-scale solar thermal plants currently heat oil, molten salt or water to generate steam. The steam powers a turbine, which in turn spins an electric generator to create AC (alternative current) power. From the point at which the steam is generated, a CST plant is identical to a coal, gas or nuclear plant in its operating principal. CST solar plants are distinguished by how that steam is generated in the first place.

The latest generation CST plants use molten salt energy storage and can maintain full turbine output for between 7.5 and 15 h straight, without any sunlight at all. While the use of molten salt storage as a ‘battery’ is not an entirely new concept, it is the demonstration at scale that is of interest. It overcomes variable electricity supply, a key barrier facing other renewable energy technologies.

The big advance with heat storage

In November 2008 Spain’s 50 megawatt (MW) Andasol 1 CST plant started feeding power to the grid near Granada in the country’s south, supplying power around the clock using an advanced system of heat storage in tanks of molten salt. Andasol is a trough plant; when its mirrors are collecting sunlight, it heats a synthetic oil that is passed through a heat exchanger to re-heat the ‘cold’ salt before being pumped back into the hot tank. When electrical generation is required, the liquid salt is pumped through a heat exchanger: the heat is transferred to water, which becomes steam that drives a conventional rankine-cycle steam turbine (Siemens SST-700 turbines), and then returned to the ‘cold’ tank.

The adjacent Andasol 2 plant was completed soon after, and as of March 2011 Spain had 11 CST plants, for a total of 765 Mwe of solar thermal in operation, more than half of which has molten salt storage. Planned solar thermal capacity is expected to push the total to 2500 MW by 2013, with the Spanish sector standing to exceed 10 000 MW by 2020.1 These CST plants are rated with 7.5 h of thermal storage each, however, operators can produce electricity over longer periods by running at lower output, giving the plant round-the-clock generating potential.

The completed Gemasolar Solar Tres plant with adjoining salt storage tanks <i>in situ</i> beside the tower.
The completed Gemasolar Solar Tres plant with adjoining salt storage tanks in situ beside the tower.
Credit: Torresol Energy

‘Power towers’ and storage

Attention is now focused on the recently completed Gemasolar (pronounced ‘hemasolar’) Solar Tres project near Seville, also in the south. Solar Tres is the first commercial CST plant of ‘power tower’ design to have salt storage – some 15 h worth. The tower configuration allows the plant to achieve higher operating heat and efficiencies. The salt will be heated to ~565°C, meaning greater energy storage and greater thermal efficiency than for a trough plant. At these temperatures, each megawatt hour (MWh) of energy generated requires ~25 tonnes of salt. Plants operating at lower temperatures require proportionally more salt per unit of energy stored. Trough plants have an upper temperature of 400°C and store energy at the ratio of 1 MWh per 75 tonnes of salt.

Changing the relative sizing of the mirrors, storage and turbine in plants allows for a different balance between maximum power and energy storage. In the case of Solar Tres, the sizing choices mean 15 h of storage at full power, giving true baseload capacity. These levels of average utilisation (~75 per cent) compare favourably with Australian base-load coal-fired power plants (on average NSW coal plants operate at an average 63 per cent of rated capacity).

Solar thermal in the US

While Spain leads with the first commercial CST-towers-with-storage plants, the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has received 148 applications for solar developments (97 000 MW potential) on public land. Many of these applications are for superior tower-type systems using molten salt for 24-h supply. Fred Morse, head of the Solar Energy Industries Association, and Thomas Mancini, head of Sandia National Laboratories, expect up to a dozen large-scale commercial solar thermal plants to break ground this year.

Costs of the technology

The US, first-of-kind medium-scale (75–150 MW) solar plants with thermal storage can generate power at about AU$0.25/kWh. New technologies always follow a cost reduction curve once they mature and economies of scale are realised. Research by Melbourne’s Energy Research Institute2 suggests that CST could hit parity with new coal and gas plants once global installations are in the order of 10 000 MW, which even under business-as-usual growth could occur by 2020 or earlier with the combined growth in existing markets of southern Europe, North Africa and the United States. Companies Torresol Energy from Spain, and Solar Reserve from the USA, now provide commercially available solar power systems (with storage) with operating characteristics comparable to a conventional coal, nuclear or gas combined cycle plant.

In its recent report ‘Zero Carbon Australia – Stationary Energy Plan’3, Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) posits that Australia’s entire energy needs could be met with a 60:40 mix of Spanish-style solar thermal, and wind. Technologies like geothermal and wave power show promise, but solar thermal and wind can be deployed at scale today and are sufficient to entirely power the country. But, while BZE support the potential of CST with thermal storage to contribute to energy supply in Australia, they believe that policy and financial frameworks are required for commercial maturity and wider application.

Australia and CST

Australia’s interest in the potential of CST has been led by CSIRO for more than a decade. Research is focused on finding pathways to least-cost but highest thermal-efficiency solar collectors and ‘receivers.’ There is now also concerted exploration underway into next-generation high temperature thermal and battery storage, which at 1400°C could achieve 50 per cent more electricity from the same collection area.

Dr Jim Smitham, Deputy Chief at CSIRO’s Energy Technology Centre in Newcastle, says while the Spanish and US CST thermal storage plants are important demonstrations of the technology’s potential, large-scale, in Australia, CST hasn’t proven itself enough commercially as standalone technology – compared to, say, wind power. It still needs to secure financiers’ confidence that here it can be a profitable, responsive supply to meet the fluctuating daily demand pricing (serving shoulder price and peak price periods is particularly important). ‘That’s why CSIRO is looking at a transition pathways role for CST technology that assists already commercially endorsed fossil fuel generation to shift to lower carbon operation.

‘As well as investigating stand-alone CST, we are investigating hybrid solar/fossil fuel and solar/geothermal plant combinations, including solar-assisted gas turbine or high-temperature steam support for fossil fuel power stations to achieve greater thermal efficiency at lower cost.

Dr Smitham also says ‘Molten salt is not the last word in CST power storage. We still need very high temperature, low-cost storage to be available at different scales. Over the last 18 months, CSIRO has started looking at the leading edge in least-cost, higher temperature storage beyond molten salt.’


More information

Previous Ecos articles: www.ecosmagazine.com/?paper=EC10076 and www.ecosmagazine.com/?paper=EC10024
CSIRO’s solar webpages: www.csiro.au/org/solar-power
Information about Solar Tres: http://tinyurl.com/3xfmb9s



More on the different CST technologies

Trough plants

Trough technology is the most proven CST design. The largest solar generation facility in the world, called Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) in California, uses troughs. SEGS is a set of nine plants near Kramer Junction in the Mojave Desert. Jointly they have a capacity of 354MW.

In a trough configuration, long lines of horizontal, parabolic mirrors focus solar radiation on a pipe through which a fluid is pumped and heated to a maximum of around 400°C. The fluid is usually a high-grade synthetic oil which does not boil or degrade at high temperatures.

In a trough plant, the mirrors rotate around their long (North–south) axis to follow the Sun during the day. Because they remain horizontal, and so don't track the Sun's elevation, trough mirrors are most effective close to the Equator where they don’t suffer reduced solar efficiency – called the projection effect’ – from this inability to follow the sun’s elevation. At the latitudes of southern Australia, trough mirrors are only about half as effective as a mirror that can more closely track the sun.

Trough mirrors from a Spanish solar power plant.
Trough mirrors from a Spanish solar power plant.
Credit: BZE

Linear Fresnel plants

The curved mirror structures of a trough plant are very expensive. A less-expensive variant on the trough mirror configuration is a Linear Fresnel (pronounced 'frenell'). which uses long, near-flat mirrors close to the ground to make an optical approximation of a parabolic trough, without the structural complexity.

These systems, such as those from Biotec Novasol (owned by Australian company Transfield) and Areva Solar (formerly Australian company Ausra), have relatively low operating temperatures of around 290°C. Therefore, no commercially viable energy storage is available because not enough heat is generated to liquify storage salt. However, Linear Fresnel companies are moving to higher temperatures and pressures, such as Mann Ferrestel / Solar Power Group who are offering a 450°C operating temperature, meaning more viable efficiency for thermal storage.

A Linear Fresnel assembly.
A Linear Fresnel assembly.
Credit: Areva Solar

Dish plants

Mirrors in a dish configuration are effective at concentrating the solar rays and track the sun in two axes. They can achieve temperatures as high as 2000°C (but are typically run at between 500°C and 650°C for electricity generation). Historically they've been expensive and not often used in solar energy plants. Australia's first solar thermal power plant was a 25kW dish-based facility developed by The ANU at White Cliffs in NSW which operated from 1981 to 1996 for an off-grid community.

The ANU has since developed the world's biggest mass production solar dish system - the ANU SG4, fourth-generation dish - which is now ready for mass production. To save costs, it is built in the field on a very accurate jig, instead of adjusting the dish after it has been manufactured.

An SG4 dish mirror from ANU in Canberra.
An SG4 dish mirror from ANU in Canberra.
Credit: BZE

Tower plants

Tower-based systems use a large field of near-flat, independently controlled mirrors called heliostats to focus light on a central receiver at the top of a tower. Heliostats are spaced to ensure they don't overshadow each other. Tower configurations can scale up to involve many hundreds, or thousands, of mirrors. This gives towers the greatest capacity to concentrate the sun's rays, leading to higher operating temperatures.

A modern tower-based solar plant would typically pass a fluid through the ‘receiver’ to be heated up to ~570°C (and in future up to ~650°C). At this temperature, electrical generation can be more efficient and cheaper than that from a trough configuration which heats to ~400°C.

The turbines required in conjunction with a tower are the same as those used in coal-fired plants, whereas the turbine technology required for lower-temperature operation is considerably more expensive because of the much lower economies of scale.

Spain’s PS10 power tower near Seville.
Spain’s PS10 power tower near Seville.
Credit: BZE

Capturing the sun efficiently – the projection effect



Heliostat mirrors track the sun in two axes which makes them more efficient than horizontal trough mirrors, especially in winter and when sited further from the Equator. Compared with a dish, which gives the best sun tracking, a trough mirror captures ~75 per cent less energy in winter at temperate latitudes because of the low angle of the Sun. This reduction of collection capacity is called the projection effect.


Solar engineers use the term insolation to describe the measurement of received solar energy, and Direct Normal Incidence (DNI) to describe the solar energy available to collectors which track the sun, i.e. no projection effect. For horizontally configured mirrors, the insolation is less (due to the projection effect) and measured as Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI).



The projection effect comparing vertical sun's rays with rays at 30 degrees.
Credit: BZE



The solar resource

It is often highlighted that Australia’s solar resource greatly exceeds our energy needs. At ground level, the power of the Sun on a one meter square surface, at right angles to the Sun's rays, is ~1 kW (kW).

Excluding cloud effects, this gives an average of ~6 kW-hours (kWh) per day for every square meter collecting sunlight. Across a sunny country as large as Australia, this represents a phenomenally large resource.

Solar energy equivalent to Australia's total current electrical peak generation capacity (~49GW4) falls as sunlight on a square area ~8km by 8km (at noon at southern Australian latitudes), or ~0.001 per cent of Australia’s landmass.

When you take into account typical sunlight patterns, and typical plant efficiency and layout, you still need less than 0.05 per cent of Australia's area to generate equivalent power. To put the required land area in perspective, it would fit six times in Anna Creek, Australia's largest cattle station.

Text explaining the different CST technologies provided by Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE).


1 www.protermosolar.com/prensa/2010_07_12/comunicado_12_07_2010.doc
2 Hearps, P and McConnell, D (2011), Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review, University of Melbourne Energy Research Institute, Melbourne, http://tinyurl.com/3eeczvm
3 Full report: http://tinyurl.com/262jzj2
4 According to ABARE 2010 http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_10/energyAUS2010.pdf




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