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Published: 10 April 2012

Could corals survive a warmer, more acidic ocean?


Two new studies suggest that some corals may be better placed to cope with the gradual acidification and warming of the world’s oceans than previously thought – giving rise to hopes that coral reefs might escape climate-change driven devastation. But researchers warn that the picture is not necessarily rosy.

Coral near the Cook Islands in the Central Pacific.
Credit: Robert Young Rights: Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License

A team of international scientists working in the central Pacific have discovered that coral that has survived heat stress in the past is more likely to survive it in the future.

The research, published in PLoS shows that in locations where heat stress is naturally more common, coral reefs may be better able to withstand the expected sea temperature rises.

The research was conducted on the remote central equatorial pacific island nation of Kiribati. Corals in this region are subjected to El Niño-driven heat waves, while corals on the islands farther from the equator are less affected.

The researchers analysed coral skeletal growth rates and tissue fat stores to compare how corals from different regions responded to two recent coral bleaching events in 2004 and 2009.

‘Up until recently, it was widely assumed that as the oceans warm due to climate change, coral will bleach and die off worldwide,’ says Dr Jessica Carill of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO). Dr Carill played a lead role in the research.

‘The research findings give hope that even though warming of the oceans is already occurring, coral that has previously withstood anomalously warm water events may do so again. While there is certainly more research needed, this appears to be good news for the future of coral reefs in a warming climate.’

Importantly, it will also help scientists understand which areas may be more or less susceptible to bleaching in the future – assisting in the planning for future Marine Protected Areas.

‘We’re starting to identify the types of reef environments where corals are more likely to persist in the future,’ says Assistant Professor Simon Donner, of the University of British Columbia, who is a member of the research team,

For Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the research delivers mixed news because the reef stretches over such huge distances – meaning some areas have stable temperatures and some do not.

Planning is now underway for potential future studies of coral in areas of the world that have not experienced significant historical changes in water temperatures.

In a separate study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, a powerful internal mechanism has been identified that could enable some corals and their symbiotic algae to counter the adverse impact of a more acidic ocean.

Greenhouse gas emissions are making the world’s ocean’s more acidic at rates thought to far exceed those seen during past major extinctions of life. This has prompted strong scientific interest in finding out which species are most vulnerable, and which can handle the changed conditions.

The team of scientists behind the research are from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (of CoECRS), the University of Western Australia (UWA) and France’s Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement.

Their research has shown that some marine organisms that form calcium carbonate skeletons have an in-built mechanism to cope with ocean acidification – which others appear to lack.

‘Marine organisms that form calcium carbonate skeletons generally produce it in one of two forms, known as aragonite and calcite,’ says Professor Malcolm McCulloch of CoECRS and UWA.

‘Our research broadly suggests that those with skeletons made of aragonite have the coping mechanism – while those that follow the calcite pathway generally do less well under more acidic conditions.’

The aragonite calcifiers – such as the well-known corals Porites and Acropora – have molecular ‘pumps’ that enable them to regulate their internal acid balance, which buffers them from the external changes in seawater pH (acidity).

‘The good news is that most corals appear to have this internal ability to buffer rising acidity of seawater and still form good, solid skeletons,’ says Prof. McCulloch.

‘But the picture for coral reefs as a whole isn’t quite so straightforward’.

First, the ‘the “glue” that holds coral reefs together – coralline algae – appear to be vulnerable to rising acidity,’ explains Prof. McCulloch.

Also of concern is that a large class of plankton, floating in the open oceans and forming a vital component of marine food webs, appears equally vulnerable to acidification. If so, this could be serious not only for marine life that feeds on them – but also for humans, as it could impair the oceans’ ability to soak up increased volumes of CO2 from the atmosphere. This would cause global warming to accelerate.

Ironically, an added plus is that warming oceans may increase the rates of coral growth, especially in corals now living in cooler waters, explains Prof. McCulloch.

However, the big unknown remaining is whether corals can adapt to global warming, which is now occurring at an unprecedented rate – at about two orders of magnitude faster than occurred with the ending of the last Ice Age.

‘This is crucial since, if corals are bleached by the sudden arrival of hot ocean water and lose the symbiotic algae which are their main source of energy, they will still die,’ cautions Prof. McCulloch.

In the published paper the researchers conclude: ‘Although our results indicate that up-regulation of pH at the site of calcification provides corals with enhanced resilience to the effects of ocean acidification, the overall health of coral reef systems is still largely dependent on the compounding effects of increasing thermal stress from global warming and local environmental impacts, such as terrestrial runoff, pollution and overfishing.’

Source: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of British Columbia and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation







Published: 2 April 2012

Computer power stacks up for flood mitigation

Carrie Bengston

The best tools to mitigate the effects of floods such as those we’ve seen recently literally splashed across our TV screens may not be levies or sandbags, but computers.

CSIRO’s computational fluid modelling expertise has enabled Chinese authorities to visualise what would happen if one of their largest dams – Geheyan – were to fail, sending 3.12 billion cubic meters of water crashing onto the town below. The colours denote different floodwater velocities.
CSIRO’s computational fluid modelling expertise has enabled Chinese authorities to visualise what would happen if one of their largest dams – Geheyan – were to fail, sending 3.12 billion cubic meters of water crashing onto the town below. The colours denote different floodwater velocities.
Credit: CSIRO

Wee Waa, Moree and Wagga Wagga – towns that to many people have previously been just dots on maps – recently made headlines, for all the wrong reasons. TV news footage showed these towns deluged with murky water from rivers swollen by record downpours. Residents, emergency services and local mayors could only assess the damage and do the best they could as they waited for damaging flood waters to recede.

While floods like this will always occur, it is possible for agencies and communities to prepare and respond more effectively. Computer power is the key: it can model fluids such as flood waters incredibly accurately. Data about specific landscapes and regions can be combined with mathematical equations of how fluids behave and move, helping emergency managers, town planners and even insurance companies be prepared for future floods.

The data deluge in sciences such as environmental modelling is every bit as awesome as the real-life deluges experienced recently in NSW. Resource managers and planners are beginning to take notice of the power of computational fluid modelling for understanding and analysing vast amounts of environmental data, and for predicting changes due to floods. Computer modelling power is based on both the power of computers themselves and the power of the algorithms (computer processing steps) that run on computers.

Twice each year, the world’s fastest supercomputers are ranked in the ‘Top500 list’. A standard test called the Linpack benchmark compares computers' speeds and energy consumption. Computer owners such as universities and government data centres, technology companies such as Intel, and supercomputer geeks all eagerly await the latest list.

In November 2011, for the first time, the number one computer on the list – Japan’s ‘K computer’ – clocked in at more than 10 petaflops, doing more than 10 quadrillion calculations per second.1

Less than three years ago, these speeds were unimaginable. Every ten years, supercomputers speed up about 1000 times. (This acceleration in processing power eventually makes its way to our desktops, mobile phones and other devices.)

The head of CSIRO’s computational and simulation sciences team, Dr John Taylor, leads teams of researchers with expertise in statistics, mathematics, information and communication technologies and other areas of science. The teams analyse large datasets from huge sensor networks such as radio telescopes, large experiments such as those using the synchrotron, and high-throughput DNA analysis systems.
The head of CSIRO’s computational and simulation sciences team, Dr John Taylor, leads teams of researchers with expertise in statistics, mathematics, information and communication technologies and other areas of science. The teams analyse large datasets from huge sensor networks such as radio telescopes, large experiments such as those using the synchrotron, and high-throughput DNA analysis systems.
Credit: CSIRO

CSIRO’s greenest supercomputer – a relatively new type of supercomputer called a graphics processing unit (GPU) cluster – has made the Top500 several times since its launch in November 2009. It ranked 212 in the November 2011 list.

Located in Canberra, it’s one of the world’s fastest and least energy-hungry supercomputers. Intriguingly, the GPUs at its heart started out as graphics rendering hardware for computer games. So, it’s no surprise that the cluster – now a workhorse for many scientists in CSIRO – can produce informative and stunning animations as it rapidly crunches enormous numbers of numbers.

‘In recent years, the huge increase in computer power and speed, along with advances in algorithm development, have allowed mathematical modellers like us to make big strides in our research,’ says Mahesh Prakash of CSIRO's computational modelling team, led by Dr Paul Cleary.

‘Now, we can model millions, even billions of fluid particles,’ says Dr Prakash. ‘That means we can predict quite accurately the effects of natural and man-made fluid flows like tsunamis, dam breaks, floods, mudslides, coastal inundation and storm surges.’

Dr Mahesh Prakash is one of a team of computational modellers at CSIRO who’ve clocked up several decades of work on fluid computer models and algorithms, including rendering to create ‘real life’ 3D wave and flood effects.
Dr Mahesh Prakash is one of a team of computational modellers at CSIRO who’ve clocked up several decades of work on fluid computer models and algorithms, including rendering to create ‘real life’ 3D wave and flood effects.
Credit: CSIRO

A dam break, for example, is essentially a human-made flood. Like a flood caused by excessive rainfall, a dam break can be modelled on computer.

The models create colourful and detailed animations that show how rapidly the water moves and where it goes: where it ‘overtops’ hills and how quickly it reaches towns or infrastructure such as power stations. This information can help town planners plan structures such as levies and help emergency services respond more efficiently.

CSIRO’s dam break models have been validated using historical data from the St Francis Dam break, which occurred in California in 1928 and killed more than 400 people. Dr Prakash and his team have used the validated modelling techniques for a range of ‘what-if’ scenarios for other dams.

Working with the Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping, the CSIRO team simulated the hypothetical collapse of the massive Geheyan Dam: one of the world's biggest. CSIRO combined their unique modelling techniques with digital terrain models (3-D maps of the landscape) to obtain a realistic picture of how a real-life disaster might unfold.

Realistic animations help flood mitigation and emergency response groups to better manage disasters.
Realistic animations help flood mitigation and emergency response groups to better manage disasters.
Credit: CSIRO

These evidence-based fluid-modelling tools can also help decision makers manage dam operations during excessive rainfall, for example, allowing them to determine when to undertake controlled water releases and how much water to release.

The future of computer modelling of floods and other natural disasters can only improve as computers and algorithms become more powerful. CSIRO's own supercomputer arsenal will be given a boost when its GPU cluster is upgraded this year. The tender was won by Xenon Systems of Melbourne and the upgrade is currently taking place.

The leader of CSIRO’s computational and simulation sciences team, Dr John Taylor, says the upgrade will open up even more possibilities.

‘We're anticipating a significant boost in computational performance and greater compatibility with the next generation of accelerator cards, all achieved using less energy per calculation,’ says Dr Taylor.

Flood modellers, regional planners and emergency managers – watch this space!

View a clip on computational fluid modelling for disaster management here.


1 In supercomputing, flops – or more accurately, flop/s, for floating-point operations per second – is a measure of a computer's performance, especially in fields of scientific calculations that rely on floating-point calculations. The prefix ‘peta’ denotes 1015 or 1 000 000 000 000 000 flops.




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